{"id":13179,"date":"2025-04-20T20:57:51","date_gmt":"2025-04-20T13:57:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rosetta.vn\/nguyenxuanxanh\/?p=13179"},"modified":"2025-04-20T21:46:45","modified_gmt":"2025-04-20T14:46:45","slug":"con-duong-den-mot-thoi-hoang-kim-cua-cong-nghiep-hoa-o-cac-nuoc-dang-phat-trien-justin-yifu-lin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rosetta.vn\/nguyenxuanxanh\/con-duong-den-mot-thoi-hoang-kim-cua-cong-nghiep-hoa-o-cac-nuoc-dang-phat-trien-justin-yifu-lin\/","title":{"rendered":"Con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi ho\u00e0ng kim c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p h\u00f3a \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n (Justin Yifu Lin)"},"content":{"rendered":"

CON \u0110\u01af\u1edcNG \u0110\u1ebeN M\u1ed8T TH\u1edcI K\u1ef2 HO\u00c0NG KIM C\u1ee6A C\u00d4NG NGHI\u1ec6P H\u00d3A \u1ede C\u00c1C N\u01af\u1edaC \u0110ANG PH\u00c1T TRI\u1ec2N<\/span><\/h1>\n

The Path to a Golden Age of Industrialization in the Developing World<\/em><\/span><\/h1>\n

Justin Yifu Lin (L\u00e2m Ngh\u1ecb Phu)<\/span><\/p>\n

Nguy\u1ec5n Xu\u00e2n Xanh<\/span><\/strong> chuy\u1ec3n ng\u1eef v\u00e0 tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

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S\u1ef1 mong mu\u1ed1n c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta, m\u1ed9t mong mu\u1ed1n\u2026 \u0111\u1ebfn v\u1edbi ch\u00fang ta t\u1eeb trong b\u1ee5ng m\u1eb9, v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd r\u1eddi b\u1ecf ch\u00fang ta cho \u0111\u1ebfn khi ch\u00fang ta xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ed3.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2014Adam Smith<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Hai kinh nghi\u1ec7m tr\u00ean (c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00e0i Loan v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c) \u0111\u00e3 thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c t\u00f4i r\u1eb1ng ngh\u00e8o \u0111\u00f3i kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u1ec7nh. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb m\u1eafc k\u1eb9t trong ngh\u00e8o \u0111\u00f3i trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7, nh\u01b0ng m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i s\u1ed1 ph\u1eadn m\u00ecnh v\u00e0 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u1ebfn b\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i. […] V\u00e0 \u1edf b\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 n\u01a1i n\u00e0o t\u00f4i t\u1eebng \u0111\u1ebfn trong ph\u1ea1m vi c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh \u1edf Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, t\u00f4i \u0111\u1ec1u th\u1ea5y nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u00f4ng d\u00e2n v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng d\u00e2n m\u00e0 t\u00f4i l\u1edbn l\u00ean c\u00f9ng \u1edf \u0110\u00e0i Loan v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ea1i l\u1ee5c. T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ec1u hi v\u1ecdng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c s\u1ed1ng t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n cho b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n v\u00e0 cho th\u1ebf h\u1ec7 tr\u1ebb b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch lao \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u0103m ch\u1ec9.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2014 Justin Yifu Lin<\/strong> (L\u00e2m Ngh\u1ecb Phu<\/strong><\/span>, trong s\u00e1ch Cu\u1ed9c Truy c\u1ea7u S\u1ef1 Th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng<\/em>, xi-xii)<\/span><\/p>\n

C\u00f3 r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng l\u1ecbch s\u1eed cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn nh\u1ea5t ng\u00e0y nay ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 can thi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 k\u00edch th\u00edch v\u00e0 t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i cho qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh c\u1ea5t c\u00e1nh v\u00e0 b\u1eaft k\u1ecbp c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, cho ph\u00e9p h\u1ecd x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c c\u01a1 s\u1edf c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc v\u00e0 duy tr\u00ec \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i. List (Friedrich, 1841), trong t\u1eadp bi\u00ean kh\u1ea3o n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i kinh t\u1ebf ban \u0111\u1ea7u \u1edf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y, \u0111\u00e3 ghi l\u1ea1i nhi\u1ec1u c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch m\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 \u2014 m\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 trong s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 cung c\u1ea5p n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng ho s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p qu\u1ed1c gia. <\/span><\/p>\n

T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, (kinh t\u1ebf gia v\u00e0 h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3 H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c) Ha-Joon Chang \u0111\u00e3 xem x\u00e9t s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 m\u00e0 h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn ng\u00e0y nay tr\u1ea3i qua c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p (t\u1eeb khi k\u1ebft th\u00fac Chi\u1ebfn tranh Napoleon n\u0103m 1815 \u0111\u1ebfn khi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn th\u1ee9 Nh\u1ea5t n\u0103m 1914). \u00d4ng nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh can thi\u1ec7p kh\u00e1c nhau c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0y th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1eaft k\u1ecbp c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. Th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y c\u0169ng l\u00e0 do vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7. C\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p can thi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 bao g\u1ed3m t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch thu\u1ebf nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u v\u00e0 th\u1eadm ch\u1ecb c\u1ea5m nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p non tr\u1ebb \u0111\u1ec1n khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p th\u00f4ng qua tr\u1ee3 c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n v\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n cung c\u1ea5p gi\u00e1 r\u1ebb t\u1eeb c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n tr\u1ee3 c\u1ea5p kh\u00e1c nhau, quan h\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng t\u01b0 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 \u1edf Anh khi n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng b\u1eaft k\u1ecbp H\u00e0 Lan v\u00e0 \u1edf M\u1ef9 khi n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng b\u1eaft k\u1ecbp Anh.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2014 Justin Yifu Lin<\/strong> (L\u00e2m Ngh\u1ecb Phu<\/strong><\/span>, trong s\u00e1ch Cu\u1ed9c Truy c\u1ea7u S\u1ef1 Th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng<\/em>, Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng 4)<\/span><\/p>\n

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GS Justin Yifu Lin thuy\u1ebft tr\u00ecnh t\u1ea1i \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Fulbright chi\u1ec1u th\u1ee9 N\u0103m, ng\u00e0y 17. 4. 2025<\/p>\n

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Quy\u1ec3n s\u00e1ch “Quest for the prosperity. How developing economies can take-off<\/em>” c\u1ee7a GS Justin Yifu Lin ra m\u1eaft k\u1ecbp l\u00fac \u00f4ng \u0111\u1ebfn th\u0103m Vi\u1ec7t Nam. Quy\u1ec3n s\u00e1ch c\u00f3 10 l\u1eddi khen ng\u1ee3i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 b\u1ed1 v\u1ecb \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Gi\u1ea3i Nobel (George A. Akerlof v\u00e0 Robert Fogel). Ng\u01b0\u1eddi vi\u1ebft l\u1eddi t\u1ef1a cho b\u1ea3n ti\u1ebfng Vi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 PGS.TS. Tr\u1ea7n \u0110\u00ecnh Thi\u00ean.<\/p>\n

M<\/span>\u1ed9t n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf \u0111i sau trong \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1edbi c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 n\u00e2ng c\u1ea5p c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p. N\u00f3 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhanh h\u01a1n c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn v\u00e0 do \u0111\u00f3 ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111i\u1ec3m h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 m\u1ee9c n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn n\u1ebfu qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00f3 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong vi\u1ec7c b\u1eaft ch\u01b0\u1edbc, nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u hay nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n giao v\u1ec1 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p t\u1eeb c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn- nh\u1eefng ng\u00e0nh n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u00e0nh v\u00e0 c\u00f3 n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi trong n\u01b0\u1edbc- t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chi ph\u00ed th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n, m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n v\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1edbi c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 n\u00e2ng c\u1ea5p c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p nhanh h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn. Sau Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn th\u1ee9 Hai, h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u0111\u00e3 gi\u00e0nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u c\u00f4ng cu\u1ed9c c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p h\u00f3a d\u01b0\u1edbi s\u1ef1 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y. \u0110\u00e1ng ti\u1ebfc l\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y b\u1ecb m\u1eafc k\u1eb9t trong t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng ngh\u00e8o \u0111\u00f3i ho\u1eb7c thu nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p vi\u1ec7c c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111i sau. Ch\u1ec9 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u00edt n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c1 t\u00ecm ra c\u00e1ch khai th\u00e1c l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111i sau, \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 8-10% trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 v\u00e0 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh nh\u1eefng n\u1ebfn kinh t\u1ebf m\u1edbi c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p h\u00f3a c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp cao.<\/p>\n

Cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch Cu\u1ed9c truy c\u1ea9u s\u1ef1 th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng,<\/em> r\u00fat ra t\u1eeb kinh nghi\u1ec7m th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i trong ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf trong ba ph\u1ea7n t\u01b0 th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 qua \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n, nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1ed9t n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i sau, ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 quan tr\u1ecdng, mang t\u00ednh h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 cho c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f3 t\u00ednh m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau. Nh\u00ecn chung, m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n g\u1eb7p ph\u1ea3i nhi\u1ec1u tr\u1edf ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng v\u00e0 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1edbi c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 n\u00e2ng c\u1ea5p c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p. Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u1edf m\u1ed9t n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00f3 c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf. Do \u0111\u00f3, ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u1ea7n \u01b0u ti\u00ean s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, cung c\u1ea5p cho c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf so s\u00e1nh ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1edfi c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 c\u00f3 chi ph\u00ed y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c, v\u1edbi c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng v\u00e0 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 bi\u1ebfn ch\u00fang th\u00e0nh l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf so s\u00e1nh th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3m chi ph\u00ed giao d\u1ecbch v\u00e0 t\u1ed5ng chi ph\u00ed, khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh n\u00e0y tr\u1edf n\u00ean c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ea1nh tranh tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf. N\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u1edf m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng theo nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc tr\u00ean th\u00ec l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111i sau c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhanh, nhanh ch\u00f3ng t\u00edch l\u0169y v\u1ed1n v\u00e0 n\u00e2ng c\u1ea5p l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf so s\u00e1nh v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9ng trong v\u00e0i th\u1eadp k\u1ef7. M\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 chuy\u1ec3n m\u00ecnh t\u1eeb ngh\u00e8o \u0111\u00f3i sang th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u1ec9 trong m\u1ed9t th\u1ebf h\u1ec7<\/em>. (Nghi\u00eang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00eam v\u00e0o)<\/p>\n

Sau khi c\u00f4ng cu\u1ed9c \u0110\u1ed5i m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1986, Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n h\u00e0ng n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea7y \u1ea5n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00e0 6,5%, so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c 3,0% c\u1ee7a th\u00ea’ gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 2,3% c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc thu nh\u1eadp cao trong c\u00f9ng th\u1eddi k\u1ef3. Th\u00e0nh t\u00edch v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a Vi\u1ec7t Nam t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng qu\u1ed1c gia ngh\u00e8o nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u1edbi GDP b\u00ecnh qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0 430 \u0111\u00f4 la n\u0103m 1986 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh cao v\u1edbi GDP b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0 4.163 \u0111\u00f4 la v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2022. N\u1ebfu t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 tr\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c duy tr\u00ec, Vi\u1ec7t Nam s\u1ebd tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp cao trong v\u00f2ng 20 n\u0103m t\u1edbi. T\u00f4i hi v\u1ecdng r\u1eb1ng phi\u00ean b\u1ea3n ti\u1ebfng Vi\u1ec7t c\u1ee7a Cu\u1ed9c truy c\u1ea7u s\u1ef1 th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng,<\/em> m\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n trong \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u00fat ra t\u1eeb kinh nghi\u1ec7m th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam sau th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 \u0110\u1ed5i m\u1edbi, s\u1ebd c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 ni\u1ec1m tin v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 s\u00e1ng su\u1ed1t v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c h\u00f3a kh\u00e1t v\u1ecdng tr\u00ean \u1edf Vi\u1ec7t Nam.<\/p>\n

(Tr\u00edch t\u1eeb L\u1eddi gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u<\/em> c\u1ee7a Justin Yifu Lin cho b\u1ea3n ti\u1ebfng Vi\u1ec7t, 2025)<\/p>\n

 <\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Xin xem th\u00eam tr\u00ean m\u1ea1ng rosetta b\u00e0i Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1edbi s\u00e1ng t\u1ea1o:<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

https:\/\/rosetta.vn\/nguyenxuanxanh\/nha-nuoc-doi-moi-sang-tao\/<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

v\u00e0 C\u1ea3m ngh\u0129 \u0111\u1ea7u Xu\u00e2n (\u1ea4t T\u1ef5 2025): N\u0103m m\u01b0\u01a1i n\u0103m nh\u00ecn v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda tr\u01b0\u1edbc<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

https:\/\/rosetta.vn\/nguyenxuanxanh\/cam-nghi-dau-xuan-at-ty-2025\/<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng (Justin Yifu Lin) <\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

https:\/\/rosetta.vn\/nguyenxuanxanh\/con-duong-thinh-vuong-justin-yifu-lin\/<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

L\u1eddi n\u00f3i \u0111\u1ea7u<\/em><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Anh ch\u1ecb th\u00e2n m\u1ebfn,<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

GS kinh t\u1ebf h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u Trung Qu\u1ed1c Justin Yifu Lin (L\u00e2m Ngh\u1ecb Phu) v\u1eeba c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t chuy\u1ebfn th\u0103m nhi\u1ec1u ng\u00e0y t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam, m\u1ed9t tin m\u00e0 c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng tr\u00ed th\u1ee9c c\u00f3 l\u1ebd \u0111\u00e3 ti\u1ebfp nh\u1eadn nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t tin vui. \u00d4ng n\u00f3i chuy\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i T\u1ea1i H\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb do ban Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a ERIA, sau \u0111\u00f3 t\u1ea1i \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Qu\u1ed1c gia H\u00e0 N\u1ed9i. Th\u1ee9 S\u00e1u v\u1eeba r\u1ed3i ng\u00e0y 17. 4, \u00f4ng n\u00f3i chuy\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Fulbright TP H\u1ed3 Ch\u00ed Minh. \u0110\u1ec1 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng l\u00e0 L\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1ea5t c\u00e1nh trong th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 21<\/em>. \u00d4ng tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y d\u01b0\u1edbi kinh nghi\u1ec7m Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111i tr\u01b0\u1edbc. T\u1ea1i H\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb \u1edf H\u00e0 N\u1ed9i, \u00f4ng c\u00f9ng GS Tr\u1ea7n V\u0103n Th\u1ecd (\u0111\u1ec1 t\u00e0i Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng hai con s\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam) v\u00e0 GS Keun Lee v\u1ec1 kinh nghi\u1ec7m H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c. L\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Vi\u1ec7t Nam l\u1eafng nghe c\u00f4ng khai c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf b\u00e1o c\u00e1o v\u1ec1 kinh nghi\u1ec7m ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n th\u1ea7n k\u1ef3 c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n, H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c. “Con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 t\u00e1ch r\u1eddi xu th\u1ebf chung c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 n\u1ec1n v\u0103n minh nh\u00e2n lo\u1ea1i” l\u00e0 \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a TBT T\u00f4 L\u00e2m khi ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Columbia th\u00e1ng 9, 2024. <\/em>Ng\u01b0\u1eddi Nh\u1eadt Minh Tr\u1ecb t\u1eebng n\u00f3i, h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ecdc Trung Hoa m\u1ed9t ngh\u00ecn n\u0103m, nay h\u1ecdc ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y th\u00ec c\u0169ng l\u00e0 chuy\u1ec7n b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 g\u00ec l\u00e0 x\u1ea5u h\u1ed5. Ch\u1ec9 x\u1ea5u h\u1ed5 khi kh\u00f4ng h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ec3 m\u00ecnh b\u1ecb l\u1ea1c h\u1eadu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Anh Tr\u1ea7n V\u0103n Th\u1ecd c\u00f3 g\u1eedi t\u00f4i link c\u1ee7a h\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u h\u00ecnh \u1ea3nh th\u00fa v\u1ecb, m\u1eddi anh ch\u1ecb xem:<\/span><\/p>\n

https:\/\/kinhtetrunguong.vn\/thoi-su\/hoat-dong-cua-ban\/chuong-trinh-lam-viec-cua-ban-chinh-sach-chien-luoc-trung-uong-va-vien-nghien-cuu-kinh-te-asean-va-dong-a.html<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

GS Justin Yifu Lin v\u00e0 anh Tr\u1ea7n V\u0103n Th\u1ecd t\u1ea1i bu\u1ed5i h\u1ed9i th\u1ea3o t\u1ea1i H\u00e0 N\u1ed9i<\/p>\n

Bu\u1ed5i n\u00f3i chuy\u1ec7n \u1edf \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Fulbright t\u00f4i c\u00f3 \u0111i nghe. N\u1ebfu anh Tr\u1ea7n V\u0103n Th\u1ecd n\u00f3i, “GS L\u00e2m Nghi Phu r\u1ea5t hay, d\u1ec5 g\u1ea7n g\u0169i, c\u1edfi m\u1edf” t\u00f4i ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n chia s\u1ebb. \u00d4ng l\u00fac n\u00e0o c\u0169ng vui v\u1ebb, mi\u1ec7ng lu\u00f4n s\u1eb5n m\u1ed9t n\u1ee5 c\u01b0\u1eddi, n\u00f3i n\u0103ng ho\u1ea1t b\u00e1t, v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u1ec3 “1001 c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n kinh t\u1ebf” kh\u00f4ng ng\u1eebng ngh\u1ec9. \u00d4ng lu\u00f4n lu\u00f4n l\u1ea1c quan, t\u1ef1 tin v\u00e0 truy\u1ec1n c\u1ea3m h\u1ee9ng cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi nghe. Nh\u1eefng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng, theo thi\u1ec3n \u00fd, l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfp n\u1ed1i c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c c\u1ee7a Adam Smith, hay g\u1ea7n h\u01a1n, c\u1ee7a Friedrich List, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t ch\u00fa tr\u1ecdng v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng qu\u1ed1c gia ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n sau, v\u00e0 \u00f4ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00f3 r\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e1ng ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng m\u1ed9. C\u00f4ng tr\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng, t\u00f4i ngh\u0129, kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi c\u00f4ng tr\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a ba nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i Nobel n\u0103m 2024 (Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson v\u00e0 James Robinson). N\u00f3 c\u00f3 t\u00ednh b\u1ed5 sung. \u00d4ng l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 v\u01b0\u01a1n l\u00ean c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c1, v\u00e0 hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n t\u1eeb ch\u1ee9c v\u1ee5 Ph\u00f3 Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch c\u1ea5p cao v\u00e0 Kinh t\u1ebf tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi t\u1eeb 2008-2012. N\u1ebfu ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ecdn m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ea1i bi\u1ec3u c\u1ee7a tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1i “\u0111\u1ed1i l\u1eadp” (b\u1ed5 sung) v\u1edbi tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1i T\u00e2n c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n v\u1edbi \u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn Washington, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p hai m\u0169i t\u00ean<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2014 T\u01b0 t\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 t\u00ednh c\u1ea1nh tranh t\u1ed1i \u0111a (y\u00eau c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a Adam Smith), v\u00e0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2014 Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc m\u00e0 \u00f4ng g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 “t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n”, facilitating state<\/em>, m\u00e0 n\u1ed9i dung ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc “ki\u1ebfn t\u1ea1o ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n” (developmental state) nh\u01b0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1ecdi theo kinh nghi\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c1, <\/span><\/p>\n

\u0111\u1ec3 trao gi\u1ea3i Nobel Kinh t\u1ebf cho t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, th\u00ec GS Justin Yifu Lin s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t “\u1ee9ng vi\u00ean n\u1eb7ng k\u00fd”. L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n, hay ki\u1ebfn t\u1ea1o ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n, c\u00f3 ngu\u1ed3n g\u1ed1c s\u00e2u xa t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng t\u01b0 t\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc ki\u1ebfn t\u1ea1o c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia latecomers th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 XIX, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t c\u1ee7a Friedrich List l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00ean phong c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 XIX, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia, \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c1 t\u1eeb Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n, \u0111\u1ebfn H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c, \u0110\u00e0i Loan, v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c. Joseph Stiglitz, Gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 t\u1ea1i \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Columbia, Gi\u1ea3i Nobel Kinh t\u1ebf n\u0103m 2001, vi\u1ebft v\u1ec1 Justin Yifu Lin (li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn quy\u1ec3n s\u00e1ch New Structural Economics)<\/em>:<\/span><\/p>\n

Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi t\u1eeb l\u00e2u \u0111\u00e3 cam k\u1ebft th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n \u0111\u00f3i ngh\u00e8o. Trong t\u1eadp s\u00e1ch tuy\u1ec7t v\u1eddi n\u00e0y, Nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf tr\u01b0\u1edfng Justin Yifu Lin \u0111\u00e3 v\u1ea1ch ra ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh ngh\u1ecb s\u1ef1 kinh t\u1ebf v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch bi\u1ebfn gi\u1ea5c m\u01a1 n\u00e0y th\u00e0nh hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c. \u00d4ng l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u1edf nh\u1eefng n\u01a1i kh\u00e1c tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u00e0 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 vai tr\u00f2 m\u00e0 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u00f3ng trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u00f3. Cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u1ed9t m\u1ed1c trong vi\u1ec7c t\u00e1i thi\u1ebft qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n. N\u00f3 cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p thay th\u1ebf cho c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn Washington hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 m\u1ea5t uy t\u00edn, v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn c\u00e1c Th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf Bretton Woods trong nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m. Nh\u1eefng \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a Justin Lin \u0111\u00e3 g\u00e2y ra nhi\u1ec1u cu\u1ed9c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn v\u00e0 tranh lu\u1eadn. <\/span>Cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o r\u1eb1ng ch\u00fang s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 trung t\u00e2m trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh t\u00e1i th\u1ea9m \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2014 Joseph Stiglitz<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Trong \u0111o\u1ea1n cu\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a D\u1eabn nh\u1eadp<\/em> (Prologue) c\u1ee7a quy\u1ec3n s\u00e1ch Cu\u1ed9c truy c\u1ea7u s\u1ef1 th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng<\/em>, c\u00e1i t\u00ean nghe g\u1ea7n g\u1ee7i v\u1edbi M\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c \u0111i\u1ec1u tra v\u1ec1 b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t v\u00e0 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 gi\u00e0u c\u00f3 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia<\/em> c\u1ee7a Adam Smith, Justin Yifu Lin vi\u1ebft: <\/span><\/p>\n

B\u1eaft tay v\u00e0o nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u00ean ghi n\u1edb \u0111i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 \u0110\u1eb7ng Ti\u1ec3u B\u00ecnh, ki\u1ebfn tr\u00fac s\u01b0 c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch v\u00e0 m\u1edf c\u1eeda c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c, \u0111\u00e3 n\u00f3i v\u1edbi T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Ghana Jerry Rawlings v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1985: “Xin \u0111\u1eebng c\u1ed1 b\u1eaft ch\u01b0\u1edbc m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i. N\u1ebfu c\u00f3 b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 kinh nghi\u1ec7m n\u00e0o t\u1eeb ph\u00eda ch\u00fang t\u00f4i, th\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n qu\u1ed1c gia c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh m\u00ecnh.” M\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y l\u00e0 v\u1ea1ch ra m\u1ed9t l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh cho c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n l\u1ea5y qu\u1ed1c gia l\u00e0m trung t\u00e2m nh\u01b0 v\u1eady.<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u00f4i xin kh\u00e9p l\u1ea1i ph\u1ea7n gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u v\u00e0 b\u00e0n lu\u1eadn th\u00eam v\u1ec1 GS Justin Yifu Lin \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y v\u00e0 d\u00e0nh vi\u1ec7c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn <\/span>cho m\u1ed9t d\u1ecbp kh\u00e1c.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 n\u1ed9i dung b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft c\u1ee7a GS Justin Yifu Lin tr\u00edch t\u1eeb s\u00e1ch New Structural Economics (NSE). A Framework for Rethinking Development and Policy, <\/em>m\u1ee5c Epilogue <\/em>c\u1ee7a Justin Yifu Lin, World Bank 2012. \u00d4ng \u0111i v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 chi ti\u1ebft c\u0103n b\u1ea3n kh\u00f4ng kh\u00f3 hi\u1ec3u l\u1eafm.<\/span><\/p>\n

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CON \u0110\u01af\u1edcNG \u0110\u1ebeN M\u1ed8T TH\u1edcI K\u1ef2 HO\u00c0NG KIM C\u1ee6A C\u00d4NG NGHI\u1ec6P H\u00d3A \u1ede C\u00c1C N\u01af\u1edaC \u0110ANG PH\u00c1T TRI\u1ec2N<\/span><\/h1>\n

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\u201cTh\u1eddi k\u1ef3 ho\u00e0ng kim c\u1ee7a t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 k\u1ebft th\u00fac\u201d, nh\u01b0 Barry Eichengreen \u0111\u00e3 b\u00ecnh lu\u1eadn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y khi nh\u1eafc \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed9c \u0110\u1ea1i suy tho\u00e1i. Tuy nhi\u00ean, theo quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i, th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 ho\u00e0ng kim c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p h\u00f3a \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u1eabn \u0111ang \u0111e d\u1ecda ch\u00e2u \u00c2u. C\u00e1c t\u1edd b\u00e1o \u0111\u01b0a tin h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i y\u1ebfu \u1edbt, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p cao c\u1ed1 h\u1eefu, x\u1ebfp h\u1ea1ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng qu\u1ed1c gia b\u1ecb h\u1ea1 c\u1ea5p v\u00e0 c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng n\u1ee3 t\u00e1i di\u1ec5n sau suy tho\u00e1i \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn \u1edf c\u1ea3 hai b\u1edd \u0110\u1ea1i T\u00e2y D\u01b0\u01a1ng. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb tr\u00ean to\u00e0n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi m\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 th\u1ee9c t\u1ec9nh tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c qu\u00e1 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec m\u1ee9c s\u1ed1ng cao, m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng v\u00e0 t\u00e1i thi\u1ebft m\u1ed9t c\u01a1 s\u1edf c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u1eefng m\u1ea1nh, ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 \u1ea3o t\u01b0\u1edfng.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ec3 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m t\u1edbi, th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi c\u1ea7n nh\u00ecn xa h\u01a1n Khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng Euro v\u00e0 n\u1ed7i lo v\u1ec1 n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 h\u1ee9a h\u1eb9n v\u1ed1n ch\u1ee9a \u0111\u1ef1ng trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u, theo \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a trong t\u1eadp s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y, l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia leo l\u00ean n\u1ea5c thang c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. Ngo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u00edt qu\u1ed1c gia xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u d\u1ea7u, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0o tr\u1edf n\u00ean gi\u00e0u c\u00f3 m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p h\u00f3a tr\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean<\/em> (Nghi\u00eang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00eam v\u00e0o). Trong nh\u1eefng chuy\u1ebfn c\u00f4ng t\u00e1c trong ba n\u0103m r\u01b0\u1ee1i qua v\u1edbi t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch l\u00e0 Nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a Nh\u00f3m Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb \u1ea5n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1edfi ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia k\u00e9m ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n trong vi\u1ec7c h\u1ecdc h\u1ecfi t\u1eeb c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c1 c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p h\u00f3a th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng h\u01a1n, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c, Indonesia, Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n, H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c, Malaysia, Singapore v\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam, v\u00e0 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t (performance) ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ni\u1ec1m tin c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i v\u00e0o th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 ho\u00e0ng kim c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p h\u00f3a \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng nhanh ch\u00f3ng c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n, bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1edf Ch\u00e2u Phi c\u1eadn Sahara, v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 d\u1ecbch chuy\u1ec3n n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p trong m\u1ed9t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111a c\u1ef1c.<\/span><\/p>\n

L\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u00ecnh dung th\u00f4ng qua s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft s\u00e2u s\u1eafc h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i kinh t\u1ebf trong th\u1eddi hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1edf \u0111\u1ea7u b\u1eb1ng Cu\u1ed9c c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p<\/em> v\u00e0o th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 18. \u1ede c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn, \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1edbi c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 n\u00e2ng c\u1ea5p c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ed1n k\u00e9m v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0o nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n, v\u00ec c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p ti\u00ean phong c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd n\u1eb1m \u1edf bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111i sau c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 vay m\u01b0\u1ee3n c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 t\u1eeb c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn v\u1edbi r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed th\u1ea5p. Do \u0111\u00f3, n\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n bi\u1ebft c\u00e1ch khai th\u00e1c l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 l\u1ea1c h\u1eadu, qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u00e2ng c\u1ea5p c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 di\u1ec5n ra v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 h\u00e0ng n\u0103m g\u1ea5p nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp cao trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 khi qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0y thu h\u1eb9p kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 thu nh\u1eadp v\u1edbi c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn. L\u1ef1c th\u1ee9 hai l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng nhanh ch\u00f3ng v\u1ec1 ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c di d\u1eddi kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u00e2m d\u1ee5ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd sang c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n kh\u00e1c. L\u1ea5y Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0m v\u00ed d\u1ee5: ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng nh\u00e2n kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 k\u1ef9 n\u0103ng l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng 350 \u0111\u00f4 la. Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng duy tr\u00ec t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cao trong nh\u1eefng th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 t\u1edbi (Lin 2011a). M\u1ee9c l\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng c\u1ee7a lao \u0111\u1ed9ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 k\u1ef9 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 1.000 \u0111\u00f4 la trong 10 n\u0103m t\u1edbi. \u0110\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng nh\u01b0 v\u1eady c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd c\u1ea7n n\u00e2ng c\u1ea5p l\u00ean c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb gia t\u0103ng cao h\u01a1n, th\u00e2m d\u1ee5ng v\u1ed1n h\u01a1n, m\u1edf ra c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i l\u1edbn cho c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c c\u00f3 m\u1ee9c thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n Trung Qu\u1ed1c tham gia v\u00e0o c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u00e2m d\u1ee5ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trong b\u00e0i gi\u1ea3ng th\u01b0\u1eddng ni\u00ean c\u1ee7a UNU-WIDER m\u00e0 t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y t\u1ea1i Maputo, Mozambique, v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 5 n\u0103m 2011, t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch c\u00e1ch c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft nh\u1eefng c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p h\u00f3a v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf nhanh ch\u00f3ng. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng l\u00e0 h\u1ecd ph\u1ea3i ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111ang m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng nhanh ch\u00f3ng \u1edf c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9ng trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 v\u00e0 \u0111em l\u1ea1i thu nh\u1eadp cao h\u01a1n c\u00f9ng c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u trang b\u1ecb (endowment) t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 so v\u1edbi h\u1ecd.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e0n s\u1ebfu bay l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u00e9p \u1ea9n d\u1ee5 h\u1eefu \u00edch \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i. K\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 18, c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia b\u1eaft k\u1ecbp th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng \u1edf T\u00e2y \u00c2u, B\u1eafc M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c1 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111i theo c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn c\u1ea9n th\u1eadn c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi cao g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i so v\u1edbi h\u1ecd v\u00e0 b\u1eaft ch\u01b0\u1edbc m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e0n s\u1ebfu bay theo con d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u00e2ng c\u1ea5p v\u00e0 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi ch\u00ednh h\u1ecd tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn (Lin 2011c).<\/span><\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 n\u1ed5i l\u00ean c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1edbn nh\u01b0 Brazil, Nga, \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c (BRIC) nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c c\u1ef1c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1edbi trong th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111a c\u1ef1c v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9ng li\u00ean t\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd trong th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi h\u1eadu kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng mang \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 cho t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00f3 m\u1ee9c thu nh\u1eadp hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd – bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u1edf Ch\u00e2u Phi c\u1eadn Sahara – \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p h\u00f3a. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, Trung Qu\u1ed1c, v\u1ed1n l\u00e0 “con s\u1ebfu \u0111i sau” \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c1, \u0111ang tr\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ra kh\u1ecfi c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u1edbi k\u1ef9 n\u0103ng th\u1ea5p. Tuy nhi\u00ean, do quy m\u00f4 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh “con r\u1ed3ng d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u” \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kh\u00e1c thay v\u00ec “con s\u1ebfu d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u” trong m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e0n s\u1ebfu bay truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 lan t\u1ecfa ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf. Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng 85 tri\u1ec7u vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u00e2m d\u1ee5ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, so v\u1edbi 9,7 tri\u1ec7u vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1960 v\u00e0 2,3 tri\u1ec7u vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m c\u1ee7a H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1980 (Lin 2011c).<\/span><\/p>\n

L\u1ee3i \u00edch c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u00e2m d\u1ee5ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9ng kh\u00e1c, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 v\u00e0 Brazil, sang c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ea5p, ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn n\u1eb1m \u1edf Ch\u00e2u Phi c\u1eadn Sahara, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn. Ch\u1ec9 ri\u00eang n\u0103m 2009, Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u 107 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la h\u00e0ng may m\u1eb7c ra th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, so v\u1edbi t\u1ed5ng kim ng\u1ea1ch xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u h\u00e0ng may m\u1eb7c c\u1ee7a Ch\u00e2u Phi c\u1eadn Sahara l\u00e0 2 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la (chi\u1ebfm 2 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m kim ng\u1ea1ch xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u h\u00e0ng may m\u1eb7c c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c). N\u1ebfu ch\u1ec9 1 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng may m\u1eb7c c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chuy\u1ec3n sang c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc Ch\u00e2u Phi c\u00f3 m\u1ee9c l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n, th\u00ec s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u h\u00e0ng may m\u1eb7c c\u1ee7a Ch\u00e2u Phi s\u1ebd t\u0103ng 47 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m. T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 r\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. D\u00e2n s\u1ed1 Ch\u00e2u Phi (ph\u00eda b\u1eafc v\u00e0 ph\u00eda nam Sahara) l\u00e0 1 t\u1ef7 ng\u01b0\u1eddi, \u00edt h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t ch\u00fat so v\u1edbi 1,15 t\u1ef7 ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u1ee7a \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9. N\u0103m 2009, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb gia t\u0103ng trong s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u00e0 16 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m GDP \u1edf \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9, 13 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc Ch\u00e2u Phi c\u1eadn Sahara v\u00e0 16 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc B\u1eafc Phi nh\u01b0 Ai C\u1eadp, Morocco v\u00e0 Tunisia. Vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m trong ng\u00e0nh s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 l\u00e0 8,7 tri\u1ec7u v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2009. Do \u0111\u00f3, d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean t\u00ednh to\u00e1n s\u01a1 b\u1ed9, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng t\u1ed5ng s\u1ed1 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m trong ng\u00e0nh s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u1edf Ch\u00e2u Phi l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng 10 tri\u1ec7u (Lin 2011c). \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c di d\u1eddi ngay c\u1ea3 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n nh\u1ecf trong s\u1ed1 85 tri\u1ec7u vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m trong ng\u00e0nh s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u00e2m d\u1ee5ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c sang Ch\u00e2u Phi c\u0169ng s\u1ebd mang l\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 cho Ch\u00e2u Phi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0ng t\u1ea1i sao c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ea5p v\u1ed1n s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c t\u00e1i ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i kh\u00e1c v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a t\u1ef1 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec3 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft nh\u1eefng c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i n\u00e0y? T\u1eeb nh\u1eefng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i trong ba n\u0103m qua v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ea5p t\u1ea1i Ch\u00e2u Phi v\u00e0 Ch\u00e2u \u00c1, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 v\u1edbi c\u00e1c doanh nh\u00e2n v\u00e0 quan ch\u1ee9c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i, t\u00f4i bi\u1ebft r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng doanh nghi\u1ec7p s\u1ebd quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c theo \u0111u\u1ed5i c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i n\u00e0y. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 c\u00f4ng ty ri\u00eang l\u1ebb t\u1eeb c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i \u0111\u00e3 li\u00ean k\u1ebft v\u1edbi c\u00e1c doanh nh\u00e2n \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n nhi\u1ec1u ng\u00e0nh s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u00e2m d\u1ee5ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u1edf c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i v\u1eabn c\u00f2n ng\u1ea7n ng\u1ea1i chuy\u1ec3n ra n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ebfn Ch\u00e2u Phi. H\u1ecd n\u00eau ra nh\u1eefng lo ng\u1ea1i sau: (i) b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb; (ii) s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 lu\u1eadt lao \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9 chuy\u00ean m\u00f4n; (iii) h\u1eadu c\u1ea7n k\u00e9m; v\u00e0 (iv) thi\u1ebfu c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n kinh doanh \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7. Nh\u1eefng lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng c\u1ee9ng v\u00e0 m\u1ec1m n\u00e0y l\u00e0m t\u0103ng r\u1ee7i ro cho c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, l\u00e0m t\u0103ng chi ph\u00ed giao d\u1ecbch trong ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u00e0 v\u01b0\u1ee3t xa nh\u1eefng l\u1ee3i \u00edch ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng t\u1eeb chi ph\u00ed lao \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ea5p \u1edf Ch\u00e2u Phi v\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ea5p kh\u00e1c.<\/span><\/p>\n

L\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng n\u00e0y? Hai v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eb9 th\u00f4ng qua cam k\u1ebft v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 ti\u1ebfp nh\u1eadn; hai v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 sau c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 th\u00f4ng qua vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c khu c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u1ee5m v\u00e0 theo t\u1eebng ng\u00e0nh c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3. T\u1ea1i sao c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn sau theo t\u1eebng ng\u00e0nh c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 \u2013 \u0111\u00f4i khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \u201cch\u1ecdn ng\u01b0\u1eddi chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng\u201d\u2014l\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c mong mu\u1ed1n?<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, nh\u1eefng c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft th\u01b0\u1eddng mang t\u00ednh \u0111\u1eb7c th\u00f9 c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, ng\u00e0nh hoa c\u1eaft c\u00e0nh v\u00e0 d\u1ec7t may \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng kh\u00e1c nhau cho ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. V\u00ec ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u1edf m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00f3 h\u1ea1n, n\u00ean ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 ph\u1ea3i \u01b0u ti\u00ean c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng theo c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1eafm th\u00e0nh m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau.<\/span><\/p>\n

Th\u1ee9 hai, \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1ea1nh tranh trong th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u h\u00f3a, m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p m\u1edbi kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 ph\u1ea3i ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf so s\u00e1nh c\u1ee7a qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u1ec3 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u1edf m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3, m\u00e0 ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00f3 c\u0169ng c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 chi ph\u00ed li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn giao d\u1ecbch th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3. Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng v\u00e0 m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng kinh doanh c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia t\u1ed1t v\u00e0 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u00e2ng c\u1ea5p v\u00e0 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p di\u1ec5n ra t\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t. N\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 ph\u1ed1i h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tham gia v\u00e0o qu\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p kh\u00e1c nhau, t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf so s\u00e1nh c\u1ee7a qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00f3. Do \u0111\u00f3, h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng t\u1ea1o th\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ee7 c\u1ee5m l\u1edbn trong n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea1nh tranh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf. Ch\u1ec9 sau nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 c\u1ee5m m\u1edbi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n. Qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh “th\u1eed v\u00e0 sai” nh\u01b0 v\u1eady c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh d\u00e0i v\u00e0 t\u1ed1n k\u00e9m, l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u00e0 kh\u00edch l\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng c\u00f4ng ty trong n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i khi tham gia v\u00e0o c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p m\u1edbi ho\u1eb7c di d\u1eddi \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3t n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i ho\u1eb7c th\u1eadm ch\u00ed \u0111\u00ecnh tr\u1ec7 s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t danh s\u00e1ch d\u00e0i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c kh\u00f4ng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ecdn ra ng\u01b0\u1eddi chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng. Nh\u1eefng th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i n\u00e0y, nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn trong c\u00e1c ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc, th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0a ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c ti\u00eau ch\u00ed t\u1ed1t \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh. Tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, khuynh h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 nh\u1eafm v\u00e0o c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p qu\u00e1 tham v\u1ecdng v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf so s\u00e1nh c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao c\u00e1c n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd nh\u1eb1m “ch\u1ecdn ng\u01b0\u1eddi chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng” l\u1ea1i d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn “ch\u1ecdn k\u1ebb thua cu\u1ed9c” (Lin, 2011d).<\/span><\/p>\n

Do \u0111\u00f3, c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c gi\u00fap c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p m\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf so s\u00e1nh ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n v\u00e0 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf r\u00e0ng bu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n trong n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i tham gia v\u00e0 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng trong c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00f3. Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng III c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p cho c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng mang t\u00ednh th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 d\u1ec5 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ea5p c\u00f3 ngu\u1ed3n t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean thi\u00ean nhi\u00ean d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o. H\u1ecd c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p h\u00f3a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra do qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u00e2ng c\u1ea5p c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9ng b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u0111i theo m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh “\u0111\u00e0n s\u1ebfu bay”. C\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p th\u00e2m d\u1ee5ng t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 khai th\u00e1c, cung c\u1ea5p r\u1ea5t \u00edt c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m. Trong chuy\u1ebfn th\u0103m Papua New Guinea n\u0103m 2009, t\u00f4i th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng m\u1ecf \u0111\u1ed3ng OK Tedi n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra 40 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m doanh thu c\u00f4ng c\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 80 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m kim ng\u1ea1ch xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u01b0ng ch\u1ec9 cung c\u1ea5p 2.000 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2009. H\u1ea7u h\u1ebft trong s\u1ed1 6,6 tri\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n Papua New Guinea v\u1eabn s\u1ed1ng b\u1eb1ng ngh\u1ec1 n\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7 s\u1ed1ng. M\u1ee9c l\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh cho c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p th\u00e2m d\u1ee5ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng. Do \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia gi\u00e0u t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean thi\u00ean nhi\u00ean, c\u00f3 m\u1ee9c l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ea5p c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p th\u00e2m d\u1ee5ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, t\u1ea1o ra nhi\u1ec1u vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft. Indonesia l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u00ed d\u1ee5 \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh cho th\u1ea5y \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 thi. C\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u00e2m d\u1ee5ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 cung c\u1ea5p ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5 lao \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u01b0 th\u1eeba t\u1eeb khu v\u1ef1c t\u1ef1 cung t\u1ef1 c\u1ea5p (subsistence) \u1edf n\u00f4ng th\u00f4n, m\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p nh\u01b0 v\u1eady c\u0169ng c\u00f2n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u1edf \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cho vi\u1ec7c n\u00e2ng c\u1ea5p li\u00ean t\u1ee5c l\u00ean c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb gia t\u0103ng cao h\u01a1n. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, Nokia c\u1ee7a Ph\u1ea7n Lan b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ty khai th\u00e1c g\u1ed7 v\u00e0 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh sang ng\u00e0nh kinh doanh th\u00e2m d\u1ee5ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t gi\u00e0y \u1ee7ng cao su; sau \u0111\u00f3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb g\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed gia d\u1ee5ng cho Phillips tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi m\u1ea1o hi\u1ec3m v\u00e0o \u0111i\u1ec7n tho\u1ea1i di \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia gi\u00e0u t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean th\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1eafc ph\u1ea3i C\u0103n b\u1ec7nh H\u00e0 Lan, v\u00ec doanh thu xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean thi\u00ean nhi\u00ean \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n l\u00ean cao, do \u0111\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng x\u1ea5u \u0111\u1ebfn kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ea1nh tranh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u kh\u00e1c c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0110\u00f4i khi, c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3i t\u1eeb t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean thi\u00ean nhi\u00ean c\u0169ng b\u1ecb c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c chi\u1ebfm \u0111o\u1ea1t, bi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 gi\u00e0u c\u00f3 v\u1ec1 t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t l\u1eddi nguy\u1ec1n. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn (rent) t\u1eeb t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean thi\u00ean nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 mang l\u1ea1i c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i l\u1edbn cho ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n n\u1ebfu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch minh b\u1ea1ch v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng v\u00e0o v\u1ed1n con ng\u01b0\u1eddi v\u00e0 v\u1eadt ch\u1ea5t, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng, v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a sang c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean nh\u01b0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t trong khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng. Nh\u1eefng kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00e0y, n\u1ebfu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn t\u1ed1t, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, gi\u1ea3m chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch v\u00e0 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng l\u00e0 ch\u1eefa kh\u1ecfi C\u0103n b\u1ec7nh H\u00e0 Lan, v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 phong ph\u00fa v\u1ec1 t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean thi\u00ean nhi\u00ean t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t l\u1eddi nguy\u1ec1n th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u1edbc l\u00e0nh. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0 do c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u01b0 v\u1eady c\u00f3 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i t\u00edch l\u0169y v\u1ed1n, n\u00e2ng c\u1ea5p trang thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb (endowment), c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng, chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 t\u0103ng thu nh\u1eadp nhanh h\u01a1n c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o lao \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0ng ngh\u00e8o t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean (Lin, 2011b).<\/span><\/p>\n

Cho \u0111\u1ebfn nay, cu\u1ed9c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn v\u1eabn t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i v\u00e0 c\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p h\u00f3a nhanh ch\u00f3ng \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ea5p. Kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac m\u1edbi c\u0169ng cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft m\u1edbi cho c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc thu nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch n\u00e2ng c\u1ea5p ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9ng. M\u1ed9t \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc thu nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u1eabn s\u1ebd n\u1eb1m b\u00ean trong bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd s\u1ebd n\u1eb1m tr\u00ean bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi do c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc thu nh\u1eadp cao h\u01a1n b\u1ecf c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00f3 l\u1ea1i ph\u00eda sau. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p tr\u01b0\u1edbc, ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n khai th\u00e1c ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111i sau, v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p sau, ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 n\u00ean \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1edbi v\u1ec1 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p. C\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng bao g\u1ed3m h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, cung c\u1ea5p b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 b\u1eb1ng s\u00e1ng ch\u1ebf, b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7\/s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m m\u1edbi, v\u00e0 mua s\u1eafm c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m m\u1edbi tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp t\u1eeb ph\u00eda ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7. N\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n n\u00e2ng c\u1ea5p v\u00e0 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 tr\u00e1nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1eaby thu nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh m\u00e0 c\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 b\u1eaft k\u1ecbp c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn ch\u1ec9 trong m\u1ed9t th\u1ebf h\u1ec7.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cu\u1ed9c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn cho \u0111\u1ebfn nay v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1edbi c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t trong n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p. \u1ede c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ea5p, n\u01a1i h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, vi\u1ec7c c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m ngh\u00e8o m\u00e0 c\u00f2n t\u1ea1o ra th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p h\u00f3a. Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u1ea7n t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i cho vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1edbi v\u00e0 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng cho s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i h\u00f3a n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 n\u00eau trong ph\u1ea7n gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u, t\u00f4i tin r\u1eb1ng m\u1ecdi qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n, bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng qu\u1ed1c gia \u1edf Ch\u00e2u Phi c\u1eadn Sahara, \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng li\u00ean t\u1ee5c \u1edf m\u1ee9c 8 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m tr\u1edf l\u00ean trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7, gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng ngh\u00e8o \u0111\u00f3i v\u00e0 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh ho\u1eb7c th\u1eadm ch\u00ed l\u00e0 thu nh\u1eadp cao trong v\u00f2ng m\u1ed9t ho\u1eb7c hai th\u1ebf h\u1ec7, n\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n cho khu v\u1ef1c t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n theo h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf so s\u00e1nh c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u00e0 khai th\u00e1c l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u1ebfn sau. T\u00f4i hy v\u1ecdng cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y s\u1ebd gi\u00fap c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n nh\u1eadn ra ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. M\u1ed9t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f3i ngh\u00e8o khi \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c thay v\u00ec ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea5c m\u01a1. <\/span><\/p>\n

Justin Yifu Lin<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

References<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lin, Justin Yifu. 2011a. \u201cDemystifying the Chinese Economy,\u201d Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.<\/p>\n

\u2014\u2014\u2014. 2011b. \u201cEconomic Development in Resource-Rich, Labor-Abundant Economies,\u201d Feb. 28, 2011, Let\u2019s Talk Development Blog, http:\/\/blogs. worldbank.org\/developmenttalk\/economic-development-in-resource-rich- labor-abundant-economies.<\/p>\n

\u2014\u2014\u2014. 2011c. \u201cFrom Flying Geese to Leading Dragons\u2014New Opportunities and Strategies for Structural Transformation in Developing Countries,\u201d WIDER Annual Lecture 15, Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. (A shorter version of this paper is forthcoming in Global Policy.<\/em>)<\/p>\n

\u2014\u2014\u2014. 2011d. \u201cPicking Winners,\u201d Let\u2019s Talk Development Blog, Oct. 18, 2011, http:\/\/blogs.worldbank.org\/developmenttalk\/node\/670.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

CON \u0110\u01af\u1edcNG \u0110\u1ebeN M\u1ed8T TH\u1edcI K\u1ef2 HO\u00c0NG KIM C\u1ee6A C\u00d4NG NGHI\u1ec6P H\u00d3A \u1ede C\u00c1C N\u01af\u1edaC \u0110ANG PH\u00c1T TRI\u1ec2N The Path to a Golden Age of Industrialization in the Developing World Justin Yifu Lin (L\u00e2m Ngh\u1ecb Phu) Nguy\u1ec5n Xu\u00e2n Xanh chuy\u1ec3n ng\u1eef v\u00e0 tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y   S\u1ef1 mong mu\u1ed1n c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rosetta.vn\/nguyenxuanxanh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13179"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rosetta.vn\/nguyenxuanxanh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rosetta.vn\/nguyenxuanxanh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rosetta.vn\/nguyenxuanxanh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rosetta.vn\/nguyenxuanxanh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13179"}],"version-history":[{"count":31,"href":"https:\/\/rosetta.vn\/nguyenxuanxanh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13179\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13214,"href":"https:\/\/rosetta.vn\/nguyenxuanxanh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13179\/revisions\/13214"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rosetta.vn\/nguyenxuanxanh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13179"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rosetta.vn\/nguyenxuanxanh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13179"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rosetta.vn\/nguyenxuanxanh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13179"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}